Paulie's Picks: 2026 Players Championship

According to the PGA Tour, the first major of the year is here. Don’t get me wrong, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is a great event with an amazing field, but I don’t think it’s the fifth major. I know you aren’t reading this article for my major opinions, so let’s dig into why you are really here: What does it take to succeed at TPC Sawgrass?

You need to be an elite ball-striker. You can’t fake your way around this course as there is simply too much trouble both off the tee and on approach. Multiple errant shots will quickly become bogeys and doubles (or worse), so the ideal player this week is someone who is consistently gaining strokes with their ball-striking, both off the tee and with irons on approach. Bombers don’t have a distinct edge this week as many holes require players to hit to the same landing zones. Let’s dig into a few bets this week that target elite ball-strikers:

Collin Morikawa: Top 20, +104

Besides Scottie Scheffler, who is the first player that came to your mind when reading what is needed to succeed at TPC Sawgrass? I’m guessing many of you would say Collin Morikawa, and you would be correct. He’s accurate off the tee and has recaptured the iron play that made him a multiple major winner. In terms of long-term form, he ranks second in the field in both approach (obviously behind Scheffler) and driving accuracy (behind Aaron Rai). He recently finished fifth at Bay Hill, seventh at Riviera, and won at Pebble Beach, and I fully expect another week of Morikawa being in contention.

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Make the Cut Parlay: Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim, -107

When considering made cut bets this week, we need to consider that the field is only 123 players. This increases the chance of a made cut by a sizable margin, so why do I think Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim will make the cut? Given the parameters mentioned above, these players are two of the best course fits for TPC Sawgrass. 

In nine appearances at the Players, Kim has made eight cuts and withdrew after the first round in 2022. Over his 33 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, he is averaging nearly one stroke per round gained based on his ball-striking (off the tee plus approach). He has finished 45th or better in his last 11 events, including nine top-20 finishes. The last time he lost strokes ball-striking was at the Wyndham last August.

Conners has struggled a bit to start 2026, but that is why we are getting an extremely reduced price on a player who had been consistently good for a prolonged period of time. His iron play improved last week at Bay Hill, where he gained strokes on approach in each of the four rounds. Over his six appearances at the Players, he is averaging 1.37 strokes gained ball-striking per round. That’s nearly five and a half shots over a full event! If Conners brings that same consistency and ball-striking again this week, don’t be surprised to see him with a good weekend tee time.