Paulie's Picks: 2026 Valspar Championship

The PGA Tour completes the Florida Swing this week just north of Tampa at the Valspar Championship, held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. This is not your typical, flat Florida course with water in play on every hole. Innisbrook requires a specific skillset to succeed. 

The par-71 design features five par 3s, four par 5s, and nine par 4s. Many of the par 4s require less than driver off the tee, so players are largely hitting approach shots from the same spots. The fairways are narrow and yield one of the lowest fairway hit percentages on Tour, even with players hitting driver less than normal. Combine low fairway percentages with small, traditionally firm greens, and that leaves us with a much lower green in regulation percentage than usual. In terms of approach play this week, 52% of approach shots come from beyond 175 yards, compared to the Tour average of 45%. All five par 3s play beyond this yardage, and a few par 5s are reachable, so we’re going to focus on this area. 

Looking at historical data from this course, it is clear that the path to success is predicated on above-average iron play paired with above-average play around the green. Let’s take a look at two players to target this week:

Akshay Bhatia: Top 20, +112

Akshay Bhatia is quietly becoming one of the best players on Tour. He has finished 16th or better in each of his last five starts, highlighted by his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a strong 13th-place showing at the Players Championship. He led the field at TPC Sawgrass in ball-striking (off the tee plus approach) but was held back by a balky short game. The funny part about that is that he gained more than 16 strokes chipping and putting at Bay Hill en route to victory. So I guess last week was more of a regression to the mean. 

But this leads me to this week at Innisbrook. Bhatia is an elite iron player who ranks second in this field in approach. He can be wild at times off the tee, but when forced to club down, like he often was last week at TPC Sawgrass, he is actually pretty accurate. He also has drastic putting splits based on grass type. He is an absolute beast on overseeded Poa greens, which is what we have this week. The same is true for his chipping, as he is better on overseeded Rye grass than he is on Bermuda grass, or on courses that have an abundance of closely mown areas around the green. He finished 17th in his last appearance at this event, and I look for him to earn his sixth consecutive top-20 finish this week.

Sahith Theegala: Top 30, +110

We are still getting cheap pricing on Theegala due to his long-term form hampered by injury. That said, Sahith hasn’t missed a cut in any of his eight starts in 2026 and has finished 32nd or better in all but one event. He is a short-game wizard who struggles off the tee and is above average with his irons. That is pretty much the exact recipe we look for at Innisbrook. He is gaining nearly a stroke per round on approach over his last three events versus really good competition at the Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Players Championship. He is above average on long par 3s, approach from 175-plus yards, and around the green. He has one of the best short games on Tour. On a course that doesn’t emphasize the driver, this seems like a perfect fit for Theegala, who finished seventh at the Valspar his rookie year. I’ll gladly back Theegala at plus money to finish top 30 this week.