Paulie's Picks: 2025 Ryder Cup Best Bets

The 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black is finally here! This is my favorite event, as both a fan and bettor. This is a rare time where we get team golf and the ability to handicap how players pair together and how they handle an intense atmosphere and tailored course setup. As the home team, Team USA has a massive advantage in controlling the course setup and fan support. Bethpage will allow the bombing of drivers off the tee and more wedge shots than normally played at this course, especially compared to a typical European Ryder Cup setup with narrow fairways, thick rough, and lengthy par 4s. Simply put, Americans succeed more with aggressive golf that allows more wedge attempts and birdies. Europeans perform best with accuracy off the tee and mid to long irons. 

The hardest thing to consider when making bets for the Ryder Cup is figuring out lineups and pairings. Here are my expected pairings (as of Tuesday afternoon):

U.S. Foursomes:

• Scottie Scheffler/Russell Henley
• Justin Thomas/ Bryson DeChambeau
• Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
• Collin Morikawa/Harris English

Europe Foursomes:

• Jon Rahm/Tyrrell Hatton
• Rory McIlroy/Tommy Fleetwood
• Ludvig Aberg/Viktor Hovland
• Justin Rose/Shane Lowry

U.S. Fourballs:

• Bryson DeChambeau/Ben Griffin
• Scottie Scheffler/J.J. Spaun
• Justin Thomas/Cameron Young
• Patrick Cantlay/Sam Burns

Europe Fourballs:

• Rory McIlroy/Matt Fitzpatrick
• Jon Rahm/Tommy Fleetwood
• Robert MacIntyre/Sepp Straka
• Viktor Hovland/Rasmus Hojgaard

Let’s take a look at a few of the best bets this week:

{{inline-article}}

European player to hit first tee shot: Jon Rahm +480

Typically in foursomes play we can figure out who will tee off on odd vs. even holes based on the distribution of par 3s and par 5s on the course. There is no real advantage to that at Bethpage Black. The big advantage comes with shot shape. Players with a left-to-right ball flight will feel a lot more comfortable teeing off on the odd holes and players with a neutral or right-to-left ball flight will be more comfortable on the even holes. 

The Euros will want to start off with one of their strongest teams, which is either Rahm/Hatton or  McIlroy/Fleetwood. Many people expect Rory to go off first, but Rahm has been in the first match in all three of his Ryder Cups. Rahm plays a fade while Hatton plays a more neutral ball flight. With Rory listed as the favorite in this market at +300, I will gladly take Rahm at +480 to hit the first tee shot.

Top rookie: Cameron Young +260

There are five rookies this week: Young, Henley, Griffin, Spaun, and Hojgaard. This is likely a two-horse race between Henley and Young as they are the only players who are (pretty much) guaranteed three matches and have the potential to play more. Griffin, Spaun, and Hojgaard will likely only play fourball matches and will play two or three matches this week. I expect Henley to pair with Scheffler in foursomes on Friday and sit the afternoon session, as Keegan will likely pair another rookie like Spaun with Scheffler to make sure everyone plays on the first day. So I would expect Henley to play the foursome matches both days, with an outside chance of playing the afternoon fourball match on day two. In terms of Young, he is a really good fit for both formats, but I expect him to play the fourball matches both days with a chance to play foursomes on day two. I would expect his partner to be JT, which could prove to be a formidable pairing. In terms of fourball, they both have extremely high birdie rates and could play well with the crowd with JT’s energy and Young’s New York ties. The pricing in this market is overvaluing Henley at +120 compared to Young at +260. This is because of Henley pairing with Scheffler, but in terms of Ryder Cup performance, JT is no slouch. Give me +260 to back Cameron Young as the top rookie.