2026 Masters Betting Preview

With the Masters a little over a week away, I wanted to start the conversation about what it actually takes to succeed at Augusta National. This will set the baseline for what to look at when targeting players for either bets, fantasy golf, or office pools. Let’s take a look at each of the four major strokes gained categories to help us determine what is and what isn’t important for Masters success:

Off the Tee

Distance provides a bigger edge than accuracy off the tee at Augusta National, where the fairways are wide and the penalty for missing the short grass isn’t too severe. Players are often still able to get the ball on or near the green after errant tee shots.

Length off the tee is a big help, especially on the par 5s, specifically on Nos. 2, 8, and 15, where longer players can reach the green in two with an iron. On the 15th hole, bombers will have a mid- to long-iron into the green for a second shot, whereas a shorter hitter will have to hit a 3-wood or lay up and be faced with that treacherous downhill lie wedge shot over the water. Beyond the par 5s, there are many par 4s where distance provides a distinct advantage, such as Nos. 5 and 11.

Approach

Elite iron play is paramount to success at Augusta National. Over the last five years, approach play has accounted for nearly 30% of all strokes gained for the players who finish inside the top five.

Percentage of Strokes Gained Approach By Year

2025 -- 27.3%

2024 -- 30.6%

2023 -- 30.3%

2022 -- 28.9%

2021 -- 32.4%

The beauty of Augusta National is that it rewards good shots and penalizes bad shots. The greens are lightning fast and heavily contoured, which makes holing putts extremely difficult, especially if you’re not putting from the correct side of the hole. Elite iron players are able to position their ball on the green in a spot that gives them a better chance at birdie. Players who are dialed in with their irons can also use the slopes to help their approach shots get closer to the hole.  Meanwhile players who aren’t dialed in with their irons will face difficult two-putts for par or extremely difficult up and downs for par if they missed the green in the wrong spot with their approach. A player may be able to cover up bad approach play for one round with an elite short game, but over the course of 72 holes, that is nearly impossible. Elite iron play is simply the number one prerequisite to contend at the Masters.

{{inline-article}}

Around the Green

Around the green skill at Augusta isn’t solely based on the physical act of chipping and pitching. It’s based on a multitude of factors including patience, creativity, and course knowledge. Simply understanding where the correct place to miss an approach shot is key. This is partly why we often see rookies struggle at Augusta. They miss in the wrong spot around the greens, which leads to bogeys (or worse). Meanwhile, we have seen plenty of wily veterans plod their way around, making bunches of pars by knowing where to leave misses. 

Putting

As weird it may sound, there is a decreased importance on putting. The greens at Augusta National are fast and contoured, which leads to fewer putts made than normal from every distance. This means we usually see a very bunched leaderboard in terms of Strokes Gained: Putting, as it is very hard to separate from the field on greens this difficult. The best chance of having putting success is actually dependent on, you guessed it, above-average iron play. If a player is continually able to leave their approach shots below the hole, they will have the chance to make more putts and be aggressive. However, players who hit their approaches to the wrong spot will find putting to be a challenge all week. Over the last five years, the winner has only gained 1.28 strokes putting for the tournament. This was highlighted by Rory McIlroy’s win last year where he actually lost strokes putting. In 2024, Scottie Scheffler gained less than two strokes putting when he won by three shots and was seven shots clear of third place.

In summary, the areas that I am placing increased importance on for the 2026 Masters are overall approach play, course knowledge paired with patience, and length off the tee.

Over the next week, we will dive in to see what players fit this mold, specifically highlighting some Longshots (Thursday, April 2) and Best Bets (Tuesday, April 7).

{{inline-course}}